Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

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The two countries上海乌托邦品茶微信n for a brig

ght future of bila上海乌托邦品茶微信teral ties and reached a streak of major consensuses, Xi sa

id, adding that the two sides agreed that China and the DPRK need to unswervingly pass down their tra

ditional friendship from generation to generation and continue writing new chapters of the times.

Beijing and Pyongyang also agreed that a political settlement of the nuclear issue in the Korean Peninsula is a popular aspiration

and an inevitable trend, and that they need to continue to stick to peace talks so as to make even greater co

ntributions to peace, stability and prosperity in the region and the wider world, Xi said.

Kim said that in their joint socialist construction endeavor, the DPRK and China have alrea

dy formed a tradition of sharing weal and woe as well as supporting each other and cooperating.

The two leaders affirmed the socialist system as the core of mainta

ning the DPRK-China friendship during their four meetings in the past year, Kim said.

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i said he wants to use t上海乌托邦女神会所 along with K

Kim and other com上海乌托邦女神会所rades from the DPRK to map out plans for bilateral coope

ration, writing a new chapter in the traditional friendship between the two countries.

Xi added that he and Kim are confident about and capable of bringing bil

ateral ties to a stage of new development in the new era to deliver more benefits to the peo

ple from both countries and promote peace, stability and prosperity in the region and the world.

Editor’s Note: President Xi Jinping will pay a two-day visit to the De

mocratic People’s Republic of Korea from Thursday. How should we evaluate the sign

ificance of the visit? Two experts share their views with China Daily’s Pan Yixuan. Excerpts follow:

DPRK not bargaining chip in talks with US

Some argue that China wants to play the “DPRK card” at President Xi’s e

xpected meeting with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G20 su

mmit scheduled for June 28-29 in Japan. Their argument could not be more wrong.

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Speaking of China’s rol上海乌托邦品茶微信o steadfastly purs

e a peaceful deve上海乌托邦品茶微信lopment path and share development opportunities with all part

ies, especially through Belt and Road cooperation and more conveniences in market access.

He also called for equal dialogue based on mutual respect and adhere

nce to multilateral trade rules in addressing economic and trade problems, stressing tha

t relevant sides should never readily resort to protectionism and unilateralism.

Xi arrived here Friday for the CICA summit and a state visit to Tajikistan.

Tajikistan is the second leg of Xi’s two-country Central Asia trip, which also

took him to Kyrgyzstan for a state visit and the 19th Shanghai Cooperation Organization summ

it.The Fifth CICA Summit takes place at the Kohi Navruz (Navruz Palace) in Dushanbe, Tajikistan on Jun

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China launches first rocket into space from platform a

hina carried out the country’s first seaborne space launch on Wednesday, from a platf

orm in its territorial waters in the Yellow Sea, opening a new chapter in its space industry.

A Long March 11 solid-propellant carrier rocket blasted off at 12:06 pm fr

om a mobile launch platform — a modified submersible craft — in the Yellow Sea off the e

astern province of Shandong and then sent seven satellites into orbit about 600 kilometers above the Earth.

The mission — the first seaborne space launch in the world in five years — showcased China’s mastery of

the technologies and capabilities required for

such operations and indicates the country has found an alternative to its ground-based launch centers.

China is striving to expand its launch service portfolio and promote its carrier roc

kets to more countries, especially those wishing to have their own affordable satellite networks.

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So by holding lectures, conducting dialogues and screen

ning movies related to the countryside and contributed by guest authors, the region’s local literary legacy can both be re-examined and extended.

Many modern and contemporary works of Chinese literature touch on common rural issues – childhood upbringing, family inheritance and people’s exp

erience of being stuck on the bottom rung of society – that have been rooted in Chinese farming culture for thousands of years.

China’s urbanization has been rapidly progressing to the extent that rural life has become

something unfamiliar to the majority of the population, which is very different from what it was like just three de

cades ago, according to Ge Fei, author and a Chinese literature professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

He was rst day of the festival, interpreting what it means to us when rural societies fade away.

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Students to be vital cogs in travel sectordents born betwe

College students born between 1995 and 2000 are becoming a vital new part of the dynamic travel market in China, with most of th

e young students making their first summer trips after enrolling in colleges, a new study said.

Though the motivation for making tours is relatively high among college students, their choices are

limited due to economic constraints with price being the major criteria for booking flight tickets, said the stud

y conducted by Qunar, an online travel firm owned by Ctrip, China’s largest online travel agency.

During summer vacations, students tend to choose flights that depart b

tween midnight and 2 am, as well as between 5 am and 9 am. The number of bookings of red-e

ye and budget flights is nearly three times higher than other regular flights, the Qunar study said.

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In 2018 alone, 8.5 metric tons of mountaineering-rela

ated trash was collected over the region’s spring climbing season. In 2019, 8.21 metric tons of various domestic waste and 2.46

metric tons of sanitary sewage was collected after the mountaineering season,” said Tashi Gyatso.

According to Nyima Tseringa, the head of the region’s sport

bureau, the Tibet Mountaineering Guide School has been playing an important role in mountain rescue.

“Founded in 1999, it is world’s second and China’s first such school, fo

r training mountaineering talent,” said Tsering, vice-chairman of the China Mou

ntaineering Association. “Teams from the school have performed 29 high-altitude

rescues in recent decades, and have set the rescue record above 8,500 meters.”

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The star apologized for the potential negative influenc

uence from his misbehavior via his official Weibo account on Tuesday, promising better behavior in the future.

The Beijing Center of Health Supervision warned punishment would follow if they can confirm these violations, adding the ma

tter has been under investigation in a post released on its official Sina Weibo account on Tuesday.

Based on these regulations, individuals who smoke indoors are fined

50 yuan ($7.20), which rises to 200 yuan if the culprits refuse to correct their violations. In

2016, another famous actor, Wen Zhang, was fined 50 yuan for smoking inside a restaurant.

ours that provide a window on wildlife without harming the animals are a welcome development for Chinese ani

mal-lovers, a recent survey found, as most people say ‘no’ to any activities that might have a negative impact on animals.

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Pei was born in Guangzhou and raised in Hong Kong and

anghai, before moving to the US in 1935. He studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard’s design s

chool, and spent the early years of his career designing buildings for a real estate developer in New York.

Pei is known for his affection towards precise geometry and design details. He also ha

d a strong reverence for light, as shown in the famous pyramid of the Louvre Museum.

His significant works include the Jacob K Javits Convention Center in Manhattan (1979 to 1986), the Morto

n H Meyerson Symphony Center in Dallas (1982 to 1989), the Bank of China Tower in Hong K

ong (1982 to 1989), and the Museum of Islamic Art in Doha, Qatar (2003 to 2008).

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